Syria hopes to remove SDF forces from the areas containing oil fields in northeast Syria and needs support from Ankara to do so. Observers have pointed to how the arrangement would serve both sides. ![]() By the end of 2022, only approximately 350,000 Syrians had returned to Syria, though actual figures may be higher as returns also occur via informal routes.Īssad has normalized relations with a number of Arab countries, including the UAE and Bahrain, and in early 2023 there were indications of a possible rapprochement between Assad and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Amnesty International has documented dozens of cases of Syrian intelligence officers subjecting men, women, and children to detention, torture, sexual violence, and forced disappearance. In reality, returning to Syria is a gamble. Over the past five years, an international push for refugees to return to Syria had gained momentum among major host states, driven partly by a decree the Assad regime issued in 2018 offering amnesty to Syrian men who fled the country to avoid military conscription-but not to those who had joined opposition forces. ![]() Although the implications of the conflict continue to reverberate, the war effectively ended in 2019, with President Bashar al-Assad’s regime reasserting control over most of the country, leaving smaller regions in the northwest and northeast under the sway of two opposition groups, the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), respectively. Since 2011, this situation has contributed to regional insecurity and impacted domestic politics in a range of host countries, including Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Türkiye (see figure 2). Little has changed in terms of the circumstances-repression, regime violence, and the exploitation of sectarian and religious divisions-that caused individuals to flee in the first place. The war in Syria, the biggest driver of human-caused displacement in the Middle East over the last decade, has transformed the region and left millions displaced with no prospect of safe return. Safe Return for Refugees and Regional Stability Without investments in climate resilience, responsive governance, and equitable social policies and without opportunities for regular migration as an adaptive mechanism, displacement may exacerbate existing inequalities and social tensions. As Europe remains focused on brokering deals to contain migrants and refugees within MENA host states-despite attempts at improved international responsibility sharing, such as the 2018 Global Compact for Migration-countries across the region will continue to grapple with the political, economic, and societal impacts of migration. These include the ongoing fallout from the Syrian civil war and the lack of a durable solution for most Syrian refugees the international displacement of Iraqis, Yemenis, and Syrians, which is only compounded by pressures of climate change and the lack of safe migratory options for citizens and non-nationals in North Africa. These challenges-conflict, poor governance, climate change, and a worsening economic picture-have created immense difficulties for migrants, refugees, and other vulnerable populations originating from and residing in the MENA region. In the coming decades, the effects of climate change will also compound the existing conflict-driven reasons that lead individuals to flee their home regions or countries, whether droughts, rising sea levels, food insecurity as a result of crop failure, or desertification. Across the region, the ongoing war in Ukraine has increased food and fuel prices and further disrupted supply chains, exacerbating the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and raising the cost of delivering humanitarian assistance to refugees and displaced people. Millions of Iraqis, Syrians, and Yemenis also remain internally displaced, with 2.6 of the 4 million Yemeni internally displaced individuals facing life-threatening food shortages. Lebanon hosts the largest number of refugees per capita (one in eight), followed by Jordan (one in fourteen) and Türkiye (one in twenty-three) (see figure 1). ![]() ![]() More than a decade after the 2011 Arab uprisings, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) continues to face unprecedented levels of displacement.
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